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RSG Performance Group

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Future For Investors Prof. Jeremy J. Siegel


Future For Investors Prof. Jeremy J. Siegel

In Unconventional Success, investment legend David F. Swensen offers incontrovertible evidence that the for-profit mutual-fund industry consistently fails the average investor. Swensen's solution A contrarian investment alternative that promotes well-diversified, equity-oriented, "market-mimicking" portfolios that reward investors who exhibit the courage to stay the course...Unconventional Success provides the guidance and financial know-how for improving the personal investor's financial future.

"Jeremy Siegel's lively new book is much more than a typical Siegelian guide to asset allocation. It is a masterful, provocative, fact-stuffed, commonsense, and creative guide to profitable stock-picking strategies. Even the most cynical and experienced investors will gain from reading Siegel's latest contribution to their well-being." --Peter L. Bernstein, author of Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk"Jeremy Siegel is a wise man and an astute observer of the ever-changing investment universe. The Future for Investors is essential for the professional and serious amateur investor to navigate the new era." --Barton M. Biggs, managing partner, Traxis Partners "The professor who taught America to love stocks in the 1990s is as optimistic as ever. But he's added a new twist to his theory: Get dividends." --Money magazine, December 2004 "Siegel thinks about the future in a unique and original way, with insightful thoughts about the broad sweep of history as well as hard-headed investment analysis." --Robert Shiller, author of Irrational Exuberance and The New Financial Order"The 'Wizard of Wharton' weighs in on the markets ahead. . . . Deeply committed to understanding the macro-financial sector and its constant change has made him an outstanding teacher for [those] who hunger for his brand of forward-looking economics as they apply to the markets." --Stocks, Futures & Options magazine, September 2004

The true benefit of trend following is only realized when investors take advantage of the extreme liquidity and diversity of global futures markets to trade a wide range of markets across all major asset categories. Our analysis shows that an investor would have achieved more than double the risk-adjusted performance of a median equity trend strategy by trading a diversified strategy across many diverse markets.

The low P/E strategy is undoubtedly the most famous contrarian strategy readily available to all equity investors. This strategy, whether applied using P/E exclusively as a buying signal or blended with other indicators, is the way most fundamental investors still approach the markets today. There is an excellent reason to do so: for those who do not know why, the leading work of Prof. Jeremy Siegel, Stocks for the long run, provides a complete explanation on how ultimately corporate Earnings have driven the stock markets for the last 300 years or so. This fundamental truth however sometimes translates, for the novice investors, into a deceitfully easy strategy based on the correlation low P/E = outsized returns. In fact, not all incomes are born same. To get the full picture, investors must tie earnings to two additional dimensions: growth and risk. The reason is rather simple: growth represents the future trend; risk relates to the probability those earnings will materialize (or not). Thus, it makes perfect sense to pay larger earnings multiples for ownership of stable businesses whose future seems bright, and less for the troubled ventures whose profits are at risk of vanishing. So, the higher the growth and the lower the risk, the higher the multiple. The theory is straightforward, the real-life application is tricky: "growth" and "risk" are subjective concepts different in the eyes of every investor. A continuous disagreement toward their assessment is what ultimately makes a market: one's trash, another's treasure. If an investor finds an "undervalued" stock, he is essentially arguing that the prevailing market opinion of earnings growth and risk is wrong (thus the word "contrarian"). 59ce067264


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